COVID-19 and the Future of Health Care

Friday, March 31, 2023 10:40 am EST

This year marks the 21st anniversary of the Mendoza College of Business signature lecture series, Ten Years Hence. We invite you to join with us to see and hear a variety of experts talk about this year’s topic, framed around a question: “Is Globalism Dead?”

Some of our speakers will say the answer is “yes,” while others will say, “definitely not.” Still others aren’t so sure, offering a qualified, “perhaps.” Friday, March 31, 2023, Bernard Nahlen joined us to speak on “COVID-19 and the Future of Health Care.” Experience the series virtually with 75 current Notre Dame students in Jordan Auditorium for a session that promises to be engaging, informative, and fun.

Join us on select Friday mornings throughout the spring semester to learn more about the global economy and a range of related issues such as global health concerns, migration, global governance, and the intersection of public policy and the public good.

Speaker:

Bernard Nahlen, Director, Eck Initiative on Global Health, The Keough School of Global Affairs, University of Notre Dame

The fifth event in the 2023 Ten Years Hence lecture series Is Globalism Dead on ThinkND featured Dr. Bernard Nahlen, Director, Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame. In this talk, Nahlen discussed global pandemics and the future of health care.

Nahlen began by providing a brief history of pandemics, starting with Black Death (or the Bubonic Plague) of the fourteenth century that killed one-third of the European population. Infectious diseases were a new concept for world leaders attempting to combat lethal illnesses, which led to the development of a quarantine period to limit the transmission of diseases to new populations. The Influenza pandemic in the early twentieth century also had severe fatalities and used similar intervention methods that were employed during the COVID-19 pandemic, including mask-wearing and offering services outside.

Nahlen also discussed the Cholera outbreak in the nineteenth century that affected much of the Global North. This pandemic triggered many conversations concerning international sanitation and health access to limit the spread of cholera, and eventually other life-threatening diseases. Organizations such as the International Red Cross, the United Nations and League of Nations Health Organization and the World Health Organization were eventually chartered due to these outbreaks. The emergence of global health governance mechanisms helped control the spread of deadly illnesses and provide intergovernmental health solutions. To combat COVID-19, some countries attempted to, both successfully and unsuccessfully, implement zero-COVID policies. Meanwhile, others focused on developing high-efficacy vaccines. Nahlen also discussed the zoonotic nature of most infectious diseases that can be spread from animals to humans through bites, eating meats, or drinking contaminated water.

Nahlen also tackled the challenges and limitations of global health governance, beginning with climate change. Climate change also plays a role in the behaviors of certain species and ecosystems. Warmer temperatures can increase the range and life expectancy of bacterial diseases, and overall climate change can alter the placement of populations, air pollution and unsafe water sources. The nature of diseases means that humans must be concerned with the environmental impact on animals who might be carrying diseases or dangerous bacteria.

There are some concerns considering the likelihood of a future COVID-19-level pandemic. There are millions of undiscovered diseases in animals, many of which have the potential to affect humans. And because of the increased interaction between communities through travel, the transmission of these diseases could again become global. The world’s preparedness for the next pandemic depends on how individual countries institute health policies following the COVID-19 pandemic and how individual people might respond to another pandemic’s effect on their lives. Nahlen reported that, as determined by a model factoring in several scenarios of global preparedness, the probability of another COVID-19-level pandemic is 2.5-3.3% per year, which translates to a 88-92% likelihood in a 75-year period (reflecting the life expectancy of young people alive during the COVID-19 pandemic). There are also concerns about every country’s ability to track and control the spread of diseases, share information with other communities and act in harmony with other affected parties.

To prepare for the next pandemic, Nahlen identified the World Health Organization as a powerful body to bring countries together to discuss opportunities for teamwork when preventing disease outbreak. While the WHO’s power is more limited than many would hope, it has been instrumental in limiting other outbreaks and public health risks such as smoking. The WHO has also taken steps to enforce regulations and create a pandemic treaty focused on preventing catastrophic failure of health systems and establishing universal health care. Nahlen concluded by emphasizing how detrimental pandemics are socially, physically and financially, which makes preventing them so important. Investing in pandemic prevention includes the development of better scientific and medical tools, the establishment of a global epidemic response and mobilization team and an increased focus on the survival of third-world countries.

Visit the event page for more.

Global pandemics have been a threat throughout history and have led to the development of quarantine periods and health organizations like the World Health Organization. (7:20)
The zoonotic nature of many infectious diseases means that humans must be concerned with the environmental impact on animals who might be carrying diseases or dangerous bacteria. (29:05)
There are millions of undiscovered diseases in animals that could affect humans, and increased travel and interaction between communities could lead to another global pandemic. (36:30)
The World Health Organization is a powerful body that can bring countries together to discuss opportunities for teamwork when preventing disease outbreaks, but its power is more limited than many would hope. (40:25)
Investing in pandemic prevention includes the development of better scientific and medical tools, the establishment of a global epidemic response and mobilization team, and an increased focus on the survival of third-world countries. (1:01:10)

“People now start realizing that just having quarantine or isolation is not going to do the job when you have this explosion of trade.” (Bernard Nahlen, 12:55)
“We’re already seeing some of these signs now, and I expect that in my lifetime that remains our concern. You see more on that. Certainly, you younger folks will be dealing with this going forward. I bring up climate change because again, it’s a huge factor when it comes to the likelihood of having future pandemics.” (Bernard Nahlen, 33:15)
“Disease transmission at a smaller level among humans– that’s going to continue to happen. But when it comes to a pandemic, there are things we can do to make that not happen.” (Bernard Nahlen, 38:30)
“No matter what your political views are, you should be able to come together around these major human health threats.” (Bernard Nahlen, 41:15)
“I will be surprised if ten years from now we won’t be looking back, and this will be like the days of the dinosaurs. That there’ll be all sorts of exciting things going on which will change the way we’re able to to see and do things.” (Bernard Nahlen, 1:10:25)