The Nuclear Threshold
This conversation with Kelsey Davenport '11 M.A., Director of Nonproliferation Policy at the Arms Control Association, was recorded as a "massive armada" gathered in the Persian Gulf. It now serves as a hauntingly prophetic analysis of the catastrophic military escalation that unfolded on February 28, 2026.
Experience the Episode
Presented by Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies
This conversation with Kelsey Davenport ’11 M.A., Director of Nonproliferation Policy at the Arms Control Association, was recorded as a “massive armada” gathered in the Persian Gulf. It now serves as a hauntingly prophetic analysis of the catastrophic military escalation that unfolded on February 28, 2026.
Hours after “intense” nuclear negotiations in Geneva ended without a deal, the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury (Roaring Lion), a joint military assault aimed at toppling the Iranian regime and “razing” its missile and nuclear infrastructure. With reports confirming the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and retaliatory strikes hitting U.S. bases across the Gulf, the region has entered the “devastating war” Davenport warned was nearly inevitable without a diplomatic off-ramp.
This episode was originally published by the Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies on March 1, 2026. To explore the entire library of Kroc Cast podcast episodes and for more information , please visit kroc.nd.edu.
MoreMeet the Speaker: Kelsey Davenport '11 M.A.
Kelsey Davenport ‘11 M.A. is the Director for Nonproliferation Policy at the Arms Control Association, where she focuses on efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism. She is one of the leading experts on Iran’s nuclear program and U.S. diplomatic efforts to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran. She also analyzes North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs and tracks emerging proliferation risks in the Middle East and East Asia.
Kelsey reports on nonproliferation and nuclear security issues for Arms Control Today and runs the Arms Control Association’s project assessing the effectiveness of multilateral voluntary initiatives that contribute to nonproliferation efforts. She is the co-author of a series of seven reports analyzing the impact of the Nuclear Security Summit process (2010-2016) on efforts to prevent nuclear terrorism and the creator of a newsletter tracking Iranian nuclear developments.
Kelsey’s analysis has been quoted in numerous publications, including The Washington Post, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Foreign Policy, the Associated Press, Le Monde, and The Guardian. She has provided commentary on NPR, CNN, ABC, Fox News, and al-Jazeera and published analysis in outlets such as Just Security, TIME, and the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
Kelsey is a member of the advisory board for the Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies at the University of Notre Dame and serves on the board of directors for the National Committee on North Korea.
Kelsey joined the Arms Control Association in 2011 as a Herbert Scoville Jr. Peace Fellow. Previously, Kelsey worked at a think tank in Jerusalem researching Middle East security issues, including regional efforts to establish a zone free of weapons of mass destruction.
She received a Master of Arts in peace studies from the Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies at the University of Notre Dame and a Bachelor of Arts summa cum laude in international studies and political science from Butler University.