American Democracy and the 2026 Midterms

Rooney Democracy Institute

Available on-demand

Join us for an insightful and dynamic panel discussion on the upcoming 2026 midterm elections, featuring Chris Matthews, former host of MSNBC’s Hardball; Francis Rooney, Former U.S. Ambassador to the Holy See and Former U.S. Representative; Frances Lee, professor of politics and public affairs at Princeton University; and moderated by Matthew E.K. Hall, director of Notre Dame’s Rooney Democracy Institute and David A. Potenziani Memorial College Professor of Constitutional Studies. Listen in to these prominent voices in journalism and politics as they offer diverse perspectives on the key issues, candidates, and potential outcomes that will shape the future of the United States.

Ideological Factionalism and Primary Dynamics

Primary election outcomes across both major parties highlight growing ideological friction and factional consolidation. Among Democrats, competitive primary contests between moderate establishment candidates and progressives have increasingly favored progressives, expanding the left-leaning caucus. While most progressive victories occur in safe Democratic districts, panelists noted that candidates such as “Elsa” in Michigan put competitive general election seats at risk compared to moderate options like Haley Stevens. Furthermore, Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) influences introduce internal friction that complicates future caucus discipline. Conversely, Republican primaries continue to function as loyalty tests centered on Donald Trump. Trump’s endorsement dominance has systematically purged internal party dissent, defeating or forcing the retirement of members who supported his impeachment and compelling Congressional Republicans to align strictly with his platform.

Structural Sclerosis and the Decay of Bipartisan Governance

The panel contrasted contemporary institutional paralysis with historical models of pragmatic, cross-party governance. Chris Matthews recalled the 1983 Social Security agreement negotiated between Democratic Speaker Tip O’Neill and Republican President Ronald Reagan, mediated by Alan Greenspan. Crucially, that deal succeeded through a split-second political cover mechanism: President Reagan publicly announced Speaker O’Neill’s agreement, locking in mutual cross-party commitment simultaneously. Today, however, mid-decade gerrymandering and extreme redistricting yield safe partisan districts, fostering an ossified 50/50 national political landscape. As Frances Lee emphasized, this safe-seat environment suppresses historical midterm backlash swings—preventing the major electoral shifts typically seen in the 1960s and 1970s—thereby insulating lawmakers from general election accountability and disincentivizing bipartisan compromise.

Foreign Policy Entanglements, Economic Disconnects, and Democratic Resilience

Broader policy entanglements and economic anxieties further exacerbate public alienation. Analyzing foreign policy friction, Chris Matthews highlighted how Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Ambassador Ron Dermer secured direct situation room access to shape U.S. policy regarding Iran, despite noted skepticism from figures like Marco Rubio, John Ratcliffe, and JD Vance. Domestically, economic frustration stems from wage stagnation and hyper-financialization. Citing Pope Leo XIII’s 1891 encyclical Rerum Novarum, Francis Rooney emphasized that working-class stability requires economic stakes in the system, noting that construction workers earning $15–$20/hour today should be earning $40–$50/hour if wages had kept pace with 1971 inflation-adjusted standards. Nevertheless, aggregate public faith in voting systems displays notable resilience, with roughly 57% of Americans trusting accurate vote counts, steady turnout, and limited post-2021 election denialism among mainstream candidates.

How do current primary election trends affect party unity in Congress? Primary election outcomes build disruptive internal factions across both parties. Progressive victories over moderate Democrats expand the left-leaning caucus and increase internal friction, while Donald Trump’s primary endorsement dominance systematically eliminates conservative dissent to enforce strict party discipline.
What conditions enabled historical cross-party deals like the Reagan-O’Neill Social Security agreement? Pragmatic historical compromises required leadership trust, expert mediation from independent leaders like Alan Greenspan, and precise operational execution. Specifically, President Reagan provided essential political cover by publicly announcing Speaker Tip O’Neill’s agreement in a split-second move that locked in simultaneous cross-party commitment.
How does redistricting affect Congressional responsiveness? Aggressive gerrymandering and the creation of safe partisan districts create an ossified 50/50 national electorate. This environment insulates lawmakers from general election accountability and suppresses historical midterm backlash swings, preventing the large electoral shifts seen in the 1960s and 1970s.
What drives populist sentiment among working-class voters? Populist frustration stems from severe economic disparities, including severe wage stagnation for physical labor—where construction workers earning $15–$20/hour should make $40–$50/hour relative to 1971 inflation-adjusted standards—and hyper-financialization that generates vast wealth from financial speculation without building tangible infrastructure (a dynamic framed by Pope Leo XIII’s Rerum Novarum).
Has rhetoric surrounding election integrity broken aggregate public faith in voting? No. Despite sustained rhetoric alleging rigged elections, aggregate public faith in vote count accuracy remains stable at approximately 57%, voter turnout across recent election cycles remains strong, and post-2021 election denialism has not broadly spread among mainstream congressional candidates.

“[T]he preponderance of the competitive races that pitted a moderate against a progressive went to the progressive on the Democratic side… so the story will be we’ll have a larger left-wing caucus, progressive caucus in the next Congress.” — Frances Lee
“The processes now are sclerotic and the people deserve better.” — Francis Rooney
“And the way they did it was Ronald Reagan announced that Tip O’Neal had agreed to this deal, that’s how they did it like split second exquisitely…” — Chris Matthews
“President Trump has been denouncing American elections since he came on the scene and it hasn’t moved aggregate public opinion that much on that; still about 57% of people believe the votes counted accurately.” — Frances Lee
“We need citizenry to rise up and not take it, write op-eds, speak, run for office, we need better people.” — Francis Rooney